Situation and outlook for primary industries

Get the latest update on the export performance of our main primary sectors and our forecasts for the future. 

About SOPI

The Economic Intelligence Unit releases a Situation and outlook for primary industries (SOPI) report quarterlySOPI reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.

Use SOPI to get historical and forecast production and trade data.

SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.

Update from the latest SOPI – March 2019

Primary industry exports are performing better than previously expected for the year ending June 2019. Export revenue is now forecast to reach $45.6 billion. This is 6.9% higher than the previous year (ending June 2018), and 3.0% higher than our December 2018 forecasts. This increase is being driven by a strong production season, and an increase in dairy and meat prices again.

In 2019, we expect horticulture to be the fastest-growing sector. Improved growing conditions (compared to 2018) for the last harvest led to higher yields for kiwifruit and most other horticultural products. Dairy export revenue is forecast to increase 5.5% from last year to over $17 billion in the year to June 2019, building on gains in the previous 2 years.

Download the March 2019 SOPI report [PDF, 3.2 MB]

Download SOPI data [XLSX, 63 KB]

What's happening in our sectors

Dairy

In the year to June 2019, we forecast:

  • dairy exports to rise 5.5% to $17.6 billion
  • 3.7% growth in milk production on farm
  • higher value products like cheese and infant formula to drive growth in export revenue.

 

Meat and wool

In the year to June 2019, we forecast:

  • meat and wool export revenue to increase by 6.0% to 10.1 billion (after a large 14.2% gain in 2018)
  • strong demand is helping to maintain high prices.

 

Forestry

In the year to June 2019, we forecast:

  • forestry exports to now increase by 7.0% to $6.8 billion due to stronger harvest volumes then previously
  • demand is expected to remain steady over the next year, with an expected increase in Chinese residential construction despite a weakening Chinese economy.

 

Horticulture

In the year to June 2019, we forecast:

  • horticulture exports now expected to only rise 15.7% to $6.2 billion
  • kiwifruit export revenue to rise 33%, due to increases in volumes and prices
  • wine export revenue is expected to increase by 3.9% and apple and pear revenue is expected to increase by 11.5%.

 

 

Seafood

In the year to June 2019, we forecast:

  • seafood exports to increase 5.8% to $1.8 billion
  • demand from key markets to continue to rise, supporting increasing prices
  • growth in aquaculture production to allow more exports to important markets.

 

Arable

In the year to June 2019 we forecast:

  • exports for the year ending June 2019 to fall 3.2% to $235 million
  • a positive long-term outlook for arable exports, with moderate price and volume growth.

 

 

Other primary sector exports

In the year to June 2019, we forecast:

  • export revenue to increase to $2.8 billion, up 3.5% from 2018
  • innovative foods, 'other' products, and sugar and confectionery products, are growing faster than previously forecast.

 


All SOPI reports

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