Situation and outlook for primary industries
Get the latest update on the export performance of our main primary sectors and our forecasts for the future. Situation and outlook, or SOPI, reports are published quarterly by the Economic Intelligence Unit.
Situation and outlook for primary industries (SOPI) reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.
Use SOPI to get historical and forecast production and trade data.
SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.
Economic update for the primary industries June 2020 [PDF, 3.3 MB]
Economic update for the primary industries June 2020
Under normal circumstances, MPI would have released a new edition of the situation and outlook for primary industries (SOPI) report in June 2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic means the situation changes on an almost daily basis. The outlook for our sectors is more uncertain than ever before so we decided to delay the release of our usual forecasting document.
Instead, MPI has prepared a report on how COVID-19 has disrupted New Zealand's primary industry exports. This shows that, in general, primary sector exports are holding up well. This is primarily due to the New Zealand dollar weakening against the United States dollar.
- There were few immediate impacts on the dairy industry due to lockdowns in New Zealand and overseas. However, the deteriorating supply and demand outlook has pushed the price outlook for the upcoming season significantly lower since January 2020.
Meat and wool
- While meat exports to China dropped significantly in February due to its lockdown, these reductions were largely offset by increasing exports to other countries.
- Social distancing measures to control the spread of COVID-19 in New Zealand during Alert Levels 3 and 4 caused a significant decrease in meat processing throughput.
- China's lockdown in February 2020 caused a 23 percent drop in total forestry exports that month, with further drops in March and April.
- Once New Zealand moved to Alert Level 3 in late April 2020, exports were able to start again. By May, exports were at similar levels to May 2019.
- Horticulture exports have flourished during global responses to COVID-19.
- Apple and kiwifruit exports have increased by 28 percent since the start of March 2020. Wine exports have increased by 11 percent in the same period.
- China's lockdown in February 2020 caused a 27 percent decrease in export revenue in February 2020. This was mainly due to a drop in demand for rock lobster.
- Exports fell further by April as the effects spread to other species such as salmon and hoki.
Find out more
Who to contact
If you have any questions about the reports, email SOPI@mpi.govt.nz